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This is our next step forward in perfectly building meat directly from plants. The white specks are made from coconut oil and cocoa butter. The dependent variable is a dummy that represents whether a country issued sovereign debt on the international markets between and the end of Finally, the regression will include an HIPC dummy intended to estimate whether countries selected for restructuring under this scheme are more likely to turn to the private debt markets for sovereign debt.

Table 1 summarizes the coupon rates and its predictors for the subset of bonds with fixed or floating coupons. The table also includes sovereign credit ratings 11 , as well as the tenure of the bond — also known as tenor or duration to maturity. The debt to GDP ratio data is not available for a large share of countries that issued bonds. The results are presented for this limited sample. The spreads on bonds issued by African governments are higher by 5. African governments generally have ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals below the group averages observed in the data.

Therefore, this section examines whether all of this difference in the cost of borrowing is justified by observable risk factors. Table 2 shows that participants in the HIPC initiative pay higher coupon spreads at issue than the average country, even after controlling for global factors and country-specific risk indicators. The same also applies to countries from sub-Saharan Africa in general. This raises two questions that deserve further research in a separate paper — 1 why would African countries leave the option of low lending rates from the multilateral lending institutions for the higher interest rates of the private markets?

In interpreting the linear regression estimates — presented in Table 2 , sub-Saharan African countries paid coupon rates at least 2. HIPC participants paid bond coupon rates that were not statistically different from the mean after controlling for other predictors. The reported R 2 values are adjusted downwards to account for the high number of time fixed-effects and ratings variables. Interpreting columns 1—3 of the table gives a conclusion that does not utilize much of the variation in the data.

There are only five SSA countries represented in the smaller sample Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda and Zambia , and only 7 of the 19 bonds issued after from the region. When the debt to GDP ratio variable is dropped from the estimation, the sample size increases to These results are shown in columns 4—6.


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The apparently biased results of these columns do not, however, contradict the main implications of columns 1—3. The evidence suggests that bonds issued by African governments tend to incur higher interest payments to investors, even after considering risk, as measured by rating, and their ability to pay as measured by foreign reserves. This is contrary to findings by Mecagni et al. As we argue in the introduction and show in the preceding paragraphs, our approach uses more controls than the IMF study.

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Specifically, we incorporate variables representing perceptions of risk. The country-specific risk proxies yield coefficients that fit expectations. Sovereign bond ratings also correctly predict higher coupon rates. The variables used to predict participation in the international private sovereign bond markets are summarized in Table 3.

The samples of interest here are the 42 sub-Saharan African countries represented in the first panel of the table and in the second panel — the countries for which macroeconomic data are available. The summary data is broadly consistent with expectations. A smaller fractions of African countries issued bonds on international markets compared to broader set of countries in the global economy — the bond issue dummy for African economies is about half of the comparable population.

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Similarly, as expected, debts and concessional debts as a share of GDP are higher for African economies. The reserve to imports ratio is also lower for African economies, suggesting the need to control for the relative availability of foreign reserves in the estimation that follows. Finally, given the concern that international bond issues could drive a return to crises for HIPC countries — recent beneficiaries of debt relief, Table 3 suggests checking whether HIPC countries are more likely than average to issue foreign debt.

HIPC countries are almost all African. These summary statistics provide context for the analysis that follows: examining whether African countries that issued international bonds appear to differ remarkably from the global set of bond issuers in terms of these macroeconomic fundamentals. Another way of setting up the question: how much better are the 11 of 42 SSA countries that issued dollar bonds than their SSA peers? Do they stand out as well as the 54 of countries that issued bonds?

Table 4 shows a positive correlation between larger, richer economies with recent trade deficits and offering loans on the sovereign bond markets after The first three columns represent a linear probability model — a simple OLS regression on the dummy variable that indicates whether a country issued a bond overseas.

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The last three are probit regressions, which assume a normal distribution for the innovations in the predictor variables. The HIPC dummy in column 2 does not change the observed estimates in any significant manner. This preliminary check of correlations allays the concern that countries selected for the HIPC initiative are more likely to return to the debt markets right after obtaining relief for old debts.

Large economies, and to a less significant level, richer economies are more likely to issue external debt in private markets. This is true for African economies, as it is true outside the continent according to column 3 of the table.

Journal of African Trade

The results also suggest that countries with low ratios of foreign reserves to imports, as well as those with low trade surpluses are more likely to be on the list of bond issuers. Taken at surface value, this is less encouraging, and suggests the risk that borrowing countries may face balance of payments challenges when the bonds come due. Foreign currency taken to make local infrastructure investments in the typical case is unlikely to produce funds in the required currency for repayment.

These two coefficients favor the view that the countries issuing debt are lower risk than the general pool.

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