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In terms of the fourth quarter guide, we're five weeks into the quarter, but we're not tied to key -- the way through our sales volume given the large volume that comes at the end of February and into March with rodeo season in Texas. So yes, I think -- you can say there is some conservatism in the guide, we'd like to put out a number that we feel good about. And as you know, we're wrapping a plus 12 in the fourth quarter of last year, so that's in the back of our mind. As we look at the January business, I think we further emboldened that we can kind of cycle a pretty strong quarter last year and continue to deliver a positive same-store sales growth number.
Your guide to stores that open on Thanksgiving and Black Friday
That's great. Just maybe any incremental investments you see constraining model flow-through, or is it pretty clean from here on now? It's relatively cleaning -- clean, Matt, bonus or incentive-based compensation has been a little bit higher this year than last year and continues to be higher.
The e-comm team delivering outsized EBIT growth et cetera, so that's bit of a pressure point. We do expect to see leverage based on our guidance of five to seven in the quarter. I wanted to ask first just following up on the quarter-to-date commentary, could you just remind us how things started off last year, just trying to get a sense of the multiyear trend that you're seeing, and then maybe color on the balance of the quarter too what you'll be facing, just give a little more color there? The quickest way to answer that is that fourth quarter last year across the three months was roughly consistent.
The only inconsistency actually was related to the prior year when tax refunds came later and it dipped February's business and improved March's business. But when we look at last year's Q4, the business was roughly consistent throughout the months. As we were on the call, I think we called out a high-single digit comp in the stores last year in January, and what we called out today was we're from a two-year stack basis we're plus 20 in the stores.
So, we're thrilled with the ability to go up again essentially double-digit comp last year and post another double-digit comp this year. And for the balance of the quarter, while there is more volume ahead of us, it is not necessarily an inclined claim from a same-store sales perspective. I mean is there any, just following up on what you just mentioned, the acceleration in January in the store performance relative to the third quarter, is there anything you can pinpoint within that, any geographies or categories that stand out?
I guess, we've seen -- we've seen strength across the business. The Texas business in January is actually stronger than the Texas business was in the third quarter. And as a reminder, Texas was better in the third quarter than the chain average, even as it went up against the recovery from Houston. So, that's helped us, but essentially everything seems to be working right now across the country and across merchandise categories.
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So, we feel great about the underlying strength of business. And then maybe one other margin related question for Greg.
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Just wondering if the recent -- in the last quarter or so, the pull back in some of the promotions, I'm curious if that's a shift in mindset that you have internally, and as you look forward, how much more opportunity is there to pull back on the promotional activity, just trying to think about as you formulate the merchandise margin projections for the quarter ahead and further out, what we should expect there? We talked about this for probably three or four quarters, Jon, it's a great question. The mindset here is to make sure that the promotions are delivering incrementality, meaning more customers shopping and it's not gratuitous, right, that we're not just giving a discount to the customer that shows up to buy work boots that day.
So, the mindset across the organization is to be careful with our promotions, and we'll continue to look at that as an opportunity. The big promotions for us are Christmas time, and we're pleased with our merchandise margin expansion in the quarter by basis points, part of that was because of the day promotion at the beginning of the quarter where we had a boot sale, the prior year, and we didn't anniversary that, so a fair amount of that relates to more regular price selling, because we were off promotion for those 17 days this year.
But as we look forward, we do think this is an area to expand margin, but it won't be the main driver like increasing private brand penetration where we get a 1, basis points of improvement for every point that we increase the exclusive brands. Good afternoon, guys. It's actually Bob Friedner on for Peter. Thanks for taking my question. First just on oil markets, I know there's always a lot of focus on Texas, but on the bigger problems in the oil downturn a few years ago was in Dakota, in Colorado, Wyoming area. So I was wondering if you could give an update on how those stores are performing.
Also maybe where those stores are from a sales based standpoint versus four years ago when oil rolled there ph? So the quick answer is on the oil markets that are non-Texas, they are essentially in line with the rest of the business. So, we haven't seen any real pressure there. But even if it became a depressed oil price for an extended period of time, we have just not as far to fall in some of these stores from where they were at their peak sales volume and average store basis back in So, that's kind of the way we're thinking about the business.
All right, thanks for the color, Jim. Just as a follow-up on tax refunds, and there's reports out there and we're of the view that tax refunds will be up for a lot of middle America, I was just wondering if you could discuss how you think about your position as a beneficiary of higher consumer spend, if it is indeed a strong tax refund season? We're not really banking on that, there has been a lot of discussion about that in the news and some other retailers have called it out. We haven't built it into our Q4 sales forecast. Having said that, it would be nice additional tailwind to our business.
But the one piece of color that we can share and I sort of said this earlier is, if you went back a couple of years when the tax refunds were later, we absolutely saw the impact to our customer. So, our customer does get that check and in many instances it's the largest check they'll get throughout the entire year. And if that check this year does come and it's outsized, it would be a nice incremental tailwind to what we're guiding to, and so we'll see, and if that comes we'll be quite pleased and if it doesn't, well, I think our business will still be pretty solid.
Great quarter. Regarding e-commerce, as you think about the momentum there and the opportunity, you'll be anniversarying some nice increases as well. What do you see happening in terms of growth in traffic and the opportunity for traffic in the market versus factors that you're driving in terms of keeping up momentum as compares toughened.